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Forecasts, Scenarios, Visions, Backcasts And Roadmaps To The Hydrogen Economy: A Review Of The Hydro
(Miguel Tejada)

A great number of papers have been published
that compare the quality or impact of academic journals. This article
seeks to broaden the debate on journal evaluation by showing how top
journals in various academic business
disciplines, as defined by the Financial Times list of top research
outlets, relate to one other. Using large-scale sociometric analyses on
about 140,000 citations we found that the integration of the citation
network has increased over time. Moreover, the information flow from
Finance and Economics to Management has become stronger and, within
Management, a polarization between information generators and users has
taken place. We also found that most business
academics published in distinct and mostly non-overlapping disciplines.
The only exceptions were Finance and Economics as well as Strategic
Management and OB/HR. Surprisingly, we also found that the general business
journals, which could be assumed to be cited by most other journals
across the management disciplines, are not central to the entire field.
For instance, they are not complementary at all to Finance and
Economics. Instead, Operations Research (OR) and Management Information
Systems journals occupy the central space on the perceptual map. This
indicates that these disciplines (and OR in particular) are
complementary with Management and with Finance and Economics.Scenarios, roadmaps and similar foresight
methods are used to cope with uncertainty in areas with long planning
horizons, such as energy policy, and research into the future of
hydrogen energy is no exception. Such studies can play an important
role in the development of shared visions of the future: creating
powerful expectations of the potential of emerging technologies and
mobilising resources necessary for their realisation. This paper
reviews the hydrogen futures literature, using a six-fold typology to
map the state of the art of scenario construction. The paper then
explores the expectations embodied in the literature, through the
'answers' it provides to questions about the future of hydrogen. What
are the drivers, barriers and challenges facing the development of a
hydrogen economy? What are the key technological building blocks
required? In what kinds of futures does hydrogen become important? What
does a hydrogen economy look like, how and when does it evolve, and
what does it achieve? The literature describes a diverse range of
possible futures, from decentralised systems based upon small-scale
renewables, through to centralised systems reliant on nuclear energy or
carbon-sequestration. There is a broad consensus that the hydrogen
economy emerges only slowly, if at all, under 'Business
as Usual' scenarios. Rapid transitions to hydrogen occur only under
conditions of strong governmental support combined with, or as a result
of, major 'discontinuities' such as shifts in society's environmental
values, 'game changing' technological breakthroughs, or rapid increases
in the oil price or speed and intensity of climate change

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