Sexual Offence Recidivism: Prediction Versus Understanding
(D Grubin ; S Wingate)
In the large meta-analysis conducted by Hanson and Bussiere (1995), the predictive value of 69 variables was tested. About one-third of these were significantly related to recidivism, and although the largest single predictor was the relatively dynamic variable of sexual preference for children as measured by phallometric methods, no variable was of sufficient strength to warrant its use in isolation. Meta-analysis, however, is not good at demonstrating multivariate effects, which require methodologies of a more complex type. The Malamuth work (1986, 1991) demonstrates that more dynamic variables than those related to life history can provide useful insights both in terms of understanding the causes of sexual offenses in particular individuals and in identifying treatment targets. Factors such as affect, levels of anger, general social skills, empathy, and self-esteem may be crucial in specific cases, but they are not easily quantifiable for the purposes of recidivism studies. The literature indicates that overall identification of those at low risk and those at exceptionally high risk of reoffending is good, although prediction of the future offending behavior of individuals in between is much less satisfactory. For actuarial studies to have clinical relevance, they must also be able to contribute to risk assessment in specific cases and to help formulate treatment needs. This will require movement away from a blind reliance on variables for their own sake to a fuller understanding of how these variables relate to the phenomenon of sexual offending.
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