China''s Futures
(James Ogilvy, Peter Schwartz and Joe Flower)
Authors James Oglivy and Peter Schwartz (and writer Joe Flower) supply the usual graphs and projections in this look at China?s possible futures, but they also color their work with brothel madams, mass executions of judges and rock stars, satellites shot down, civil war between factions of the New Chinese Mandarins, an all-out naval assault on Taiwan and China at war with India. These timelines are presented as realistic scenarios of China?s possible evolution over the next 20 years. "Scenario planning" sounds a lot like science fiction, but the Authors apply the same kinds of projections that companies use in financial forecasting to the future of China. Novelistic narratives - another hip practice that businesses are using - show each future. They read and sound a lot like science fiction, but are very entertaining and illustrate their scenarios graphically. Is a novelist?s pen at work?
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