Resumo de Apollo' Arrow: The Science Of Prediction And The Future Of Everything

As a species we have always sought to control our existence, and as such we have, throughout the ages, devised various methods by which to do so. Not least of these has been the ability to predict forthcoming events. Over the centuries the means by which we arrive at our prognostications may have changed, but we are still driven by an incessant desire to foresee what lies ahead. Climate, health, and the economy are major areas of concern that have become increasingly reliant upon and moulded by predictive models that are the oracles of our day. And just as in ancient times, whole empires can rise or fall based upon the abilities of these new ?oracles? to predict the shape of things to come.While we may not venture to ancient Delphi to consult with the oracle about Climate change and issues of the stock market, the fact remains that as kings once took to heart the prophecies of Pythia, so, too, do politicians take the words of our modern oracles. Great stock is placed in the predictive models used to determine the future course of the economy and the outlook for the world?s climate. Some might argue the fate of the world is beholden to such models, and that humanity will either rise or fall on their say so.The problems inherent in trusting such models is the basis of Canadian scientist David Orrell?s fascinating book APOLLO?S ARROW. In this absorbing look at humanity?s incessant quest to foretell the future, Orrell takes us from the days of ancient Greece, when the likes of Pythia (the oracle at Delphi) reigned as the supreme predictor, through to our modern era of elaborate predictive models based on mathematical equations that can be run through powerful computers to churn out prognostications upon which we can faithfully plan the outdoor picnic for the coming week or sell off stocks of certain commodities.In a lucid, non-technical manner Orrell weaves a captivating tale about the evolution of predictive modelling and the dangers of placing too much faith in a science whose ability to accurately foresee events to come may be little or no better than the oracular ramblings of Pythia. He paints a fascinating portrait of how we have reached the point at where we now stand, and in doing so illustrates the fallacy of being rigidly wedded to a regime of mathematical models whose inherent errors invariably make them hopelessly inaccurate instruments upon which to base the important decisions of the day.Specifically, Orrell?s book concerns itself with climate, health, and the economy, the triumvirate whose interconnectedness has perhaps the most profound influence on human civilization. He meticulously deconstructs the notion that we can somehow distill the enormous landscapes of this trio into sets of equations for which we must then simply input the given variables and accordingly arrive at reasonably precise conclusions of what the future will be.As anyone who has ever looked at the ten day weather forecast knows, our ability to predict the exact nature of tomorrow?s weather is at times suspect, and becomes increasingly so the farther we move from the moment. Those responsible for the models upon which such forecasts are based invariably argue the need for more data, the logical conclusion being that the more information that goes into the model the more accurate it will be. But while it may be true the devil is in the details, Orrell clearly points out the fallacy of such thinking, illustrating that the fault lies not in the amount of available data and the chaos of the systems from which that data is culled, but in the models themselves.

Inan age when there is much debate raging over the future of the world?s climate and the effect that it will have upon the economy and the welfare of all humanity, APOLLO?S ARROW serves as a sober reminder that we should not blindly follow the words of our contemporary oracles (the scientists involved in fashioning and implementing the various models used to predict the future of the climate, human health, and the economy). While those advocating drastic measures in order to prevent the disaster they perceive through their models of global climate change can certainly not claim any reasonable measure of accuracy, it?s equally true that those on the other side of the debate are similarly hamstrung. Opponents of global climate change are quick to jump on the errors in the models used to predict impending catastrophe, but in an ironic twist they are blind to the errors in the economic models they invariably use to predict that the application of the measures environmentalists are calling for will result in economic disaster.Orrell points out there?s a lot of flexibility in most models, that one can essentially jig the output to arrive at the conclusion one wants by simply massaging the data that is input. This just further illustrates the risk of making fundamental choices that affect us all based on the recommendations of an instrument that is inherently flawed. So if we can?t trust the models, who can we trust? And what does that say of tomorrow? I would suggest a careful reading of David Orrell?s book and a warning that in future we take the words of oracles with a grain of salt. Quite possibly the only way we can ever truly know the future is to live it.

Resumos Relacionados