Resumo de Price Transmission Among Products Of The Sugar-ethanol Sector In São Paulo State.

Price transmission among products of the sugar-ethanol sector in São Paulo state.In the early 1990's it was started the Price deregulation process ofproducts of sugar-ethanol sector through the exemption of its prices.In this context, these prices started to be determined according toregulations of a free market. Since then, the sugar-ethanol sector hasundergone profound changes in a considerably short period of time. Thisstudy aims to analyze price transmission among markets of main productsof the sugar-ethanol sector in São Paulo State. It was determined theintensity and the duration in which price fluctuations are transmittedfrom a level of market to another and from one product to another ofthe same level. The analysis was carried out during the period of May1998 and June 2002. The proposed model was implemented by making use oftests for unit root of Augmented Dickey-Fulley (ADF), of co-integrationof Johansen and the method of Vector Auto-Regression with ErrorCorrection (VEC). Results point to contemporary inter-relations amongindustrial crystal sugar prices in the domestic market and the marketderived from exportation and among the prices of packed crystal sugarto producer and to retailing. The anhydrous ethanol price does notexplain contemporarily the prices of industrial crystal and exportedsugar. In the decomposition of forecast errors variance, it is notedthe almost entire independence of the industrial crystal sugar price,the relating of anhydrous ethanol price to the industrial crystal sugarprice and to the packed crystal sugar price to producer. The prices forexportation remain relatively independent from the variances of thedomestic market. The price of packed crystal sugar to producer revealsdependency to the price of industrial crystal sugar and to packedcrystal sugar to retailing. To the retail market the packed crystalsugar, almost all of its price variations are explained by the variableitself and by the producer's operating market price. In theimpulse-response functions, results show that shocks to the industrialcrystal sugar price causes a positive impact to the prices of anhydrousethanol and of packed crystal sugar to producer with a time gap. Shocksto the anhydrous ethanol price causes a positive impact to the pricesof industrial crystal sugar and to the exported crystal sugar only infourth period after the shock. Shocks to exported crystal sugar price,basically does not cause any impact to the domestic market. The shockto the packed crystal sugar to producer has influence on the prices ofindustrial crystal and packed crystal sugar to retailing with a timegap and on the exported crystal sugar price in the fourth period. Theshock to the packed crystal sugar price in the retail market causes anegative impact to the price of industrial crystal and packed sugar toproducer. In general terms, results point to inter-relations among theprices of the products studied, once shocks to any of the variableslead to impacts in the direction to the others, specially after a shortadjusting time. However, these relations did not reveal as expressiveas expected.

Resumos Relacionados